Reno Nevada Forecast Discussion from the National Weather Service

000
FXUS65 KREV 152256
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
356 PM PDT THU MAY 15 2008

.SHORT TERM...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IS SHOWING SOME MASSIVE SUBSIDENCE SPREADING
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION...ALTHOUGH THIS HAS NOT WORKED DOWN TO THE
MOUNTAIN TOPS YET PER THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS. THE 12Z MEDFORD
SOUNDING SHOWED THIS MASSIVE SUBSIDENCE VERY WELL. THIS SUBSIDENCE
IS EXPECTED TO WORK DOWN BY LATE TONIGHT ON THE PEAKS AND TO THE
SURFACE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH DRIER AND WARMER AIR WORKING IN
ALOFT...WE WILL BE OFF INTO THE 90S FRIDAY FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS
AND POSSIBLY NEAR 100 IN THE CARSON SINK BY SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE
MILD IN THE BASIN VALLEYS...BUT GOOD DIURNAL SWINGS ARE EXPECTED
WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

REGARDING THE SPECIFICS OF HIGH TEMPERATURES...WE ARE RIGHT ON
TRACK FOR RECORD TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. THE
LATEST 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE NOW HAS 850 AND 700 MB TEMPERATURES
RUNNING +2 TO +2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE
EASING OFF SLIGHTLY BY MONDAY. THESE DEVIATIONS ARE GETTING QUITE
NOTEWORTHY...WITH SOME ALL-TIME MAY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS
POSSIBLY FALLING IN A FEW SPOTS. RENO IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO BE
WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF THE ALL TIME HIGH OF 98 (SET IN 1910) ON
SUNDAY AND 4 DEGREES ON MONDAY. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
VERY WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK ON TRACK FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.  ON MONDAY THE STRONG RIDGE SHOULD STILL BE OVER THE SWRN
CONUS.  THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING.  AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID 90S ACROSS WRN NEVADA.
AS MENTIONED IN THIS MORNING`S LONG TERM DISCUSSION...SOME LOCATIONS
IN WRN NEVADA VALLEYS COULD APPROACH 100 DEGREES.  ANY 100-DEGREE
READING IN MID MAY WOULD BE APPROXIMATELY ONE MONTH EARLIER THAN
AVERAGE.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN THEIR READINGS ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NW.  THE MAIN EFFECT FROM THIS SYSTEM WOULD BE AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER MAINLY OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE KREV CWFA.  ON
WEDNESDAY AFTN HIGHS SHOULD COOL EVEN MORE IN RESPONSE TO THE NLY
FLOW WHICH SHOULD SET UP IN THE WAKE OF THE EWD MOVING UPPER
TROUGH.  ON THURSDAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD START TO WARM SLIGHTLY AS
THE STRONG ERN PACIFIC RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD IN AGAIN.

THE STRONG SFC HEATING THAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE ON MONDAY WILL MAKE
ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE ACROSS MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES MONDAY
AFTN.  HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SPARSE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES LESS THAN 0.50 INCH ON MONDAY.  MOISTURE AND LLVL INSTABILITY
SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. O`HARA
&&

.CLIMATE...
VERY HIGH PROBABILITY HIGH MAXIMUM AND HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
RECORDS WILL BE BROKEN FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE
DATA IS INDICATING LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES OF 2 TO 2.5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WHICH TRANSLATES
TO POSSIBLY THREATENING A FEW ALL TIME MAY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES.
SEE THE RECORD TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND LINK ON OUT WEB PAGE FOR
DETAILS AND FUTURE UPDATES REGARDING THIS HISTORIC EVENT.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. O`HARA
&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

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NWS REV Office Area Forecast Discussion